After reaching a (nominal) record price early this month, gold is back in the news, with prices resuming their climb after a mid-month stumble. Risk aversion tied to renewed fears over the euro area is generally cited for the recent spurt.

Taking a longer view, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the gold price is now at or near its peak (details can be found at our Global Forecasting Service site: free registration required). The average price is expected to peak this quarter, with an 8% slide forecast for the second half of the year. Monetary tightening and a stronger dollar should push the gold price down further in 2012—in terms of the average annual price, we expect a decline of 12% next year.

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