In the Deutsche Bundesbank’s latest Financial Stability Review, the German central bank reckons that the country’s lenders are in for another €50bn to €75bn in write-downs by the end of next year. These estimates, of course, are subject to major qualifications, as are similar forecasts for lenders elsewhere.

Helpfully, the Bundesbank assembles charts tracking the total loan-loss forecasts for the financial crisis made by other major institutions. Although the scopes and methodologies differ—see page 57 in the report for the full list of caveats—a clear trend is established: “estimates initially rose dramatically but are now cautiously receding.” Even if there is more pain in store, the ultimate damage will not be as great as once feared.

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